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Predicting neonatal intubation competency in trainees. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pediatric residency training programs are graduating residents who are not competent in neonatal intubation, a vital skill needed for any pediatrician involved in delivery room resuscitations. However, a precise definition of competency during training is lacking. The objective of this study was to more precisely define the trajectory toward competency in neonatal intubation for pediatric residents, as a framework for later evaluating complementary training tools. METHODS: This is a retrospective single-center observational study of resident-performed neonatal intubations at Duke University Medical Center between 2005 and 2013. Using a Bayesian statistical model, intubation competency was defined when the resident attained a 75% likelihood of intubating their next patient successfully. RESULTS: A total of 477 unique intubation attempts by 105 residents were analyzed. The path to proficiency was defined by a categorical or milestone learning event after which all learners move toward competency in a similar manner. In our cohort, 4 cumulative successes were needed to achieve competency. Only 24 of 105 (23%) achieved competency during the study period. Residents who failed their first 2 opportunities, compared with those successful on their first 2 opportunities, needed nearly double the intubation exposure to achieve competency. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian statistics may be useful to more precisely describe neonatal intubation competency in residents. Achieving competency in neonatal intubation appears to be a categorical or milestone learning event whose timing varies between residents. The current educational environment does not provide adequate procedural exposure to achieve competency for most residents.